And the surprise winner for Countries Who Don't Have Anything To Spend Their Tax Dollars On But Shiny New Stadiums is...

..

It’s often said that variety is the spice of life.  Well, when it comes to UEFA qualifying, for any tournament, if you’re on a bland diet, then you’d best grab the antacid now.  Once again, Michel Platini and his boys have come up with a new set-up to decide the fourteen clubs that will join the hosts, Poland and the Ukraine, in June 2012.

You might need your calculator for this.  Are you ready?

Okay, this time around it’s nine groups, six consisting of a half dozen nations and the other three containing five apiece.  Of course, it’s the same home and home round robin within the groups, as in the past,  but this time the nine first place countries and the best overall runner-up will automatically advance to the finals.

Now, because some groups have six squads and others five, there is a special ranking system to determine the best runner-up.   Essentially, any matches played against a sixth place finisher will not count in deciding the automatic qualifier.  Which means that whoever is eventually crowned champion, one thing is certain:  as the final group qualifying matches approach, sales of headache medicine will rise sharply in several countries, as fans without mathematical doctorates attempt to calculate their side’s chances.  For instance, even if your team is certain of finishing second, the results from matches involving minnows in other groups, may affect your standing.  If the wrong team suddenly falls into sixth position or climbs out of it, the fortunes of  your boys may drastically change.   We’ll wait for those of you heading to the medicine cabinet now to return before continuing.

Right then, moving on…  Once the single runner-up and nine group winners have qualified, that leaves eight other second place countries to be seeded into two-legged ties, with the winners claiming the remaining four places in the final tournament.  Yes, we did say seeded, because that’s what UEFA have solemnly promised, mindful of the furor last autumn, when they exercised their prerogative to change their minds, at the last minute, and held a draw for the World Cup play offs.  Fingers crossed but it’s likely they’ll keep their word this time.

It's a little known fact that Einstein flunked out of Group Qualification Theory.

Still, even with their vow to remain consistent going forward, Platini’s crew have managed to fudge things just a little.  You would think that, having concocted this complicated system for deciding the best runner-up, UEFA would use it to rank the other eight.  Unfortunately, that would be too easy.  Instead, the sufficiently more intricate and confusing UEFA National Team Coefficient rankings will be used to decide the playoff matchups.

I’m sorry, but if you’ve raised your hand to ask us to explain the coefficient, please put it back down or we shall be forced to club you to death.  Thank you very much.

UEFA made two other decisions, before the draw, of which one came to the fore when the balls were drawn.

First, minnows, or should we say piranhas(?), Azerbaijan and Armenia were precluded from meeting each other in the group stages.  These two nations simply don’t like each other on any level, never mind football, and so common sense prevailed over bureaucracy, with provisions being made, just in case.  As it happened, ‘in case’ reared its ugly head and the two were both drawn into Group A, whereupon UEFA moved Armenia over to Group B.  What would be done if the two nations both progressed and were fated to meet in the later rounds of the competition would really not be an important consideration.  There are plenty of other things which take precedence when the Apocalypse arrives.

Second, it was decided that should France be drawn with the Republic of Ireland nothing would be done.  According to Platini such an event “would be great.”  It would be even greater if Les Bleus would be required to not only recall, but start, Thierry Henry in both matches, were the sides to eventually meet again. Sadly, though, it was the luck of the Irish to be placed in a group with Slovakia and Russia.  Any plans of revenge will have to wait for another day.

It should also be noted that one match has already been played and Estonia, on the strength of a 2-1 home victory over the Faroe Islands, has actually been atop Group C since 11 August.  Technically then, we are a little late with this preview but are, nonetheless, happy to bring you a summary of the nine groups with our ratings for each of the nations involved.

Beginning with:

Group A…..(Geoff Edwards)

The group looks to be a straight fight between Belgium, Turkey and Austria for the honour of going through alongside Germany, who have to be favourites following their World Cup exploits.  The only dilemma for Joachim Low, at the moment, is the tug-of-war between Michael Ballack and Phillip Lahm, over the captain’s armband

Belgium, under the stewardship of Georges Leekens, certainly possess enough quality to emerge from this group. In Marouane Fellaini, Steven Defour, Axel Witsel, Eden Hazard and Romelu Lukaku, Belgian fans will hope there is the nucleus of a squad that could rival their 80s and early 90s vintage, when a side containing the likes of Enzo Scifo and Jan Ceulemans was prominent on the world scene.

Hiddink's merlinesque effect may bring Turkey back into prominence

Turkey will hope to ensure that Euro 2012 is a tournament too soon for Belgium’s youngsters. Guus Hiddink’s men have a nice blend of youth and experience and a few survivors from the squad that reached the semis in Euro 2008, including Arda Turan and the Altintop brothers. Most importantly, they have Hiddink. If anyone can get the Turks performing consistently it’s the Dutch alchemist, who will want to put his previous campaign with Russia behind him.

Austria look to be a little behind Turkey and Belgium in the race for 2nd but, with a forward line boasting Martin Harnik, Erwin Hoffer, Marko Arnautovic and Marc Janko, they certainly have the potential to derail rival campaigns.  Although they can both be classed as the minnows of the group, Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan are certainly far from no-hopers. They’ll each look to take maximum points off the other and nick a point or two from their more illustrious opponents.

Group B…..(Eliot Rothwell)

This looks to be a two horse race with the footballing thoroughbreds of Ireland and Russia battling it out for the top spot.

Russia, under Dick Advocaat, will look to continue the progress made by Guus Hiddink.  With such players as Andrei Arshavin and Roman Pavlyuchenko, the Russians do have the horsepower . The one question is the defence and its inept talent for conceding silly goals when it matters most.

Giovanni Trappatoni relates the amount of times his stomach had to be pumped last month, after he ingested a bad batch of bangers and mash.

Ireland, under the stewardship of Il Trap, are looking to qualify for their first international tournament in some time.   The resolute defending of Richard Dunne, et al, will form the basis of their bid to claim top spot. With an attacking force of Robbie Keane and Kevin Doyle up front, the Irish are capable of doing damaging but they lack depth and could lose their way should injuries to key players arise.

Any surprises might come from Vladimir Weiss’ Slovakia, who triumphed over Italy at the World Cup. The potent menace of striker Stanislav Sestak re-enforced by a tremendous team spirit could pose a serious danger to Russia and Ireland. The win over Italy was greeted with jubilation in Bratislava and combined with the progression of Zilina to the Champions League group stages, a good European campaign could round off a very satisfying year for Slovakian football.

Bringing up the rear are Macedonia, Andorra and Armenia, the whipping boys of the group. Macedonia present the biggest threat, as England fans will know.  Inter Milan’s Goran Pandev shoulders much of the attacking burden.  The fight for bottom of the group will be interesting as Andorra and Armenia slug it out to see who can accumulate a lesser amount of 5-0 defeats, with Andorra sweetening the pot by welcoming away teams to Barcelona for a spot of R and R pre-match.

Group C….. (Eliot Rothwell)

The Cesare Prandelli era begins for World Cup ’06 winners, Italy.  The Italians will be favourites to qualify , yet also intent on regaining their opponents’ respect after their dismal showing in South Africa. Daniele De Rossi and Giorgio Chiellini will be looking to get their international careers back on track. If rumours are proven correct, there could be much re-shaping of this Italian side.  With former captain Fabio Cannavaro now playing in the Middle East and Luca Toni and Francesco Totti definitely on the outs, expect a new crop of Italians to come to fruition this season.

Where Vidic leads, his band of Serbs will follow.

Featuring a wealth of attacking players, Serbia will present the biggest threat to Italy’s chances. Milos Krasic and Milan Jovanovic will provide width and incisive wideplay for the Serbians, who benefit from the extremely strong defence of Nemaja Vidic and Branislav Jovanovic. Serbia could finish top of the group, providing they find their goalscoring boots with 6’5″ Nikola Zigic backing up the towering talent of Marko Pantelic.

Slovenia are the next team in line. They were unlucky not to progress from their World Cup group and Mateja Kez’s side will be looking to continue the second golden age of Slovenian football by claiming a place at the Euros. With a resolute defence and, in Valter Birsa, an ability to score spectacular goals, the Slovenians are capable of scraping out 1-0 wins away from home.

Northern Ireland, perennial nearly men, will be relying on the goalscoring talents of David Healy once more as they attempt to scrap their way through the qualifying stages. If they are to progress, expect a spate of 1-0 home wins.  In August, Estonia struggled to a 2-1 extra time win, at home,  against the Faroe Islands.  The result hardly inspires confidence that they’ll prove any impedance to the big boys.

The Faroe Irelands, themselves? Surely they have no chance. Well that may be true but with the uncompromising Faroese air, the wayward Danes may just be able to nick a result here and there.

Group D….. (Tapesh Patel)

France is the only team from this group which qualified for the World Cup and therefore must go down as favourites. Laurent Blanc’s rebuilding job has, to date,  been largely praised but it will come under closer scrutiny (though not from Ireland), with inexperienced faces joining the World Cup dropouts. Some may expect Les Bleus to struggle but their pool of talent is surely far too large for qualification to be a problem.  Samir Nasri, Karim Benzema, Hatem Ben Arfa, Jeremy Menez and Pillippe Mexes will all return after being omitted from the South Africa squad by Raymond Domenech. However, it won’t be if, but how France qualify that will be most telling.

Dzeko wants to put a charge into Bosnia-Herzogovina

A talented side is Bosnia-Herzegovina but very top-heavy in attack.  The focal point of the team is the prolific Edin Dzeko, ably assisted by Zlatan Muslimovic, Vedad Ibisevic and raw midfielder Miralem Pjanic.  Unification of Christian and Muslim team members has instilled pride and patriotism in both the squad and the country itself, which will aid their qualification campaign.

Romania are solid but unspectacular. Captain Cristian Chivu has experienced colleagues in defence, such as Gabriel Tamas, Razvan Rat and Cosmin Contra. A lack of firepower up front, however, may create problems.   Belarus could be unlikely wildcards in what is a fairly weak group. Aliaksandr Hleb provides a touch of class, Vitaly Kutuzov some finesse, and Sergei Kornilenko the goals, having been prolific in the Belorussian League.

Meanwhile, Albania are strong in midfield, led by Lorik Cana and Altin Lala, but lack quality elsewhere.  Luxembourg are, of course, the very definition of minnows.

Group E …..(Avi Goldberg)

The nice moments of the World Cup in South Africa are over and it’s time for the Dutch to qualify for the Euro 2012 through Group E.  While I’m an unashamedly huge fan of the Oranje, there is no doubt that they’re the favourites in this group, with an impressive 25 games unbeaten, until the final, thanks to Bert van Marwijk’s decision to field a solid midfield.  A new challenge lies ahead, however, with two important players leaving, in captain Geovanni van Bronckhorst and veteran centre back Andres Ooijer.  As well,  seeing Robin van Persie and Arjen Robben falling off the team injured, they’ll need to prove again why they went so far in the World Cup.

Fans of the Blågult are hoping that Ibra is happier to return to them than he is to Milan.

Sweden, after missing the World Cup, will do their best to win all their games and try to settle an account with the Oranje, over their loss in the quarter-finals of Euro 2004. Now that the time for friendlies has past and the matches count, the Swedes can rely once more on the experienced striker, Zlatan Ibrahimovic.

The Finns aren’t to be forgotten, fielding a decent team despite never qualifying for the Euros. They adapt to every game differently and are unafraid of going for the win. Hungary, with their new coach Sandor Egervari and experienced midfielders Balazs Dzsudzsak & Roland Juhasz, can hurt their opponent badly through the counter attack & are not a team to think of as the weaker side.

The lesser known teams in this group, Moldova, ranked 89th worldwide by FIFA and San Marino, 202nd, have never qualified for the World Cup or the Euros but are determined to make matters as difficult as possible and prove themselves to the serious contenders.

Group F…..(Tapesh Patel)

After the disappointment of not reaching the World Cup, Slaven Bilic will be out to make amends. He has the squad to do it, too. Croatia are a solid all-round side, boasting talented playmakers in Luca Modric, Ivan Rakitic and Nico Kranjcar, as well as a potent strikeforce consisting of Eduardo da Silva, Ivica Olic and Maladen Petric. Bilic has created good teams from his players in the past, and although the Croats will need to be on their game to win this group, any other result would be a big upset.

Samaras is just praying for a chance to play.

Good news for all purists: Otto “Anti-football” Rehhagel has officially resigned from his post as Greece manager. In his defence (pun intended), he has secured his place in Greek footballing folklore. It now falls to the Portuguese, Fernando Santos, to attempt qualification – if he is to succeed, younger players like Sotiris Ninis and Georgios Samaras must be given chances to impress.

Israel have an outside chance at a playoff spot. They’re a young squad led by the experienced hands of Yossi Benayoun and Tal Ben Haim. Dekel Keinan, Tamir Cohen, Ben Sahar and Biram Kayal are all talented players, known to followers of the British leagues, and teenage midfielder Eyal Golasa has drawn admiring glances from Lazio and Bayern Munich. Latvia still possess some of the players who helped them qualify for Euro 2004, such as Maris Verpakovskis, who famously bagged six goals during that campaign. Nor should it be forgotten that they came third in World Cup qualification.

Georgia features a strong defence, led by Kakha Kaladze and Zurab Khizanishvili, but otherwise won’t linger in anyone’s mind. Malta are very much the outsiders, in this or any group in which they’re drawn.

Group G….. (Matt Dalton)

With England‘s ridiculously poor performance in South Africa all but a distant memory, it’s now time to focus on the next international tournament and, indeed, the future of the England national team. Having been drawn alongside Bulgaria, Montenegro, Switzerland and Wales, England have been granted a route to qualification which is far from easy. The Three Lions will be desperate to get off to a good start at Wembley against the Bulgarians on the 3rd September, with the second match quickly following, away to Switzerland on the 7th.

Ottmar's first priority is always that the bus is properly parked.

For the other teams in Group G, there is optimism. Never before have England appeared to be quite so weak; morale is at an all time low, key players are regularly underperforming and the fans are on the squad’s back like never before. Of course, England still expect, and are expected, to secure qualification from the group.  Yet, if ever there was a chance for the likes of Ottmar Hitzfeld’s Switzerland, with its bunker mentality, to spring an upset, surely this is it.  Bulgaria, even without the retired Dimitar Berbatov, and Montenegro are not to be taken lightly, either.

There is also the presence of an up and coming Wales side. Their resources may not be equal to England but there is no doubt that they’ll be up for the games. The rivalry between the two countries is massive; you only have to look at the rugby.

Ordinarily, there would be at least four “easy” games in a qualification group. This time around, however, there will be no ‘working vacations’ to ease the way.  With only five nations, instead of six, there are no minnows and it’s clear that there will be surprises before all is said and done. Every team in this group is hopeful of a place at the European Championships in 2012, and rightly so!

Group H …..(Tapesh Patel)

"Rumblin', Bumblin', Stumblin'!" Ronaldo needs to get it together on the international stage. (w/apologies to the great Keith Jackson)

When it comes to Portugal, all eyes are on one man, which is just the way the twinkle-toed Cristiano Ronaldo likes it. After the major disappointment that was his World Cup, featuring a single unflattering goal, the Real Madrid man (his current injury aside) will hope to get back to what he does best: running rampant over inferior opposition. The Iberian midfield now has a young core of Raul Meireles, Joao Moutinho and Miguel Veloso, while left-back Fabio Coentrao also gives the side an added dimension going forward.

The Danish World Cup squad had an aging look to it, with players such as Jesper Gronkjaer, Dennis Rommedahl and Jon Dahl Tomasson all visibly past their prime. Denmark needs an infusion of new blood.  Luckily, manager Morten Olsen can call upon such rising stars as Daniel Agger and Christian Eriksen to replace those on the wane. Goals will be needed from Arsenal striker Nicklas Bendtner to bolster a side which lacked a consistent offensive threat in South Africa.

If the recent 2-1 friendly victory against France is anything to go by, Norway have blended their youth and experience  into a capable outfit.   With the likes of captain Brede Haageland, the brothers John Arne and Bjorn Helge Riise and Morten Gamst Pedersen, the Norwegians possess talent across the team.  They could well beat fellow Scandinavians Denmark (and Iceland) to second place.

Led by the likeable Eidur Gudjohnsen, Iceland may produce  some shock results.  Sadly there are no Stjarnan players in the squad, so don’t hope for any interesting goal celebrations.  Cyprus are unknown quantities with all of the squad currently playing their trade in the country’s domestic league. While not as isolated as the North Koreans, they are just as unlikely to stage an upset in this competition.

Group I….. (Steven Jones)

After completing a World/European double, there are no signs of the end of the ‘golden age’ for Spain.   In fact, it looks like they might go from strength to strength and betting against them finishing top of the group would be borderline insane.  No, the group ultimately comes down to the battle for second place between the Czech Republic, Scotland and possibly Lithuania.

Whatever Darren Fletcher may think of McFadden's choice of anti-perspirant, he is happy to have him in the lineup.

Recent campaigns have done Scotland no justice, as they are again 3rd seeds in their group. Managing to avoid Sweden (who tore them apart a month ago) as well as Serbia and Turkey are major plusses but the Czech Republic will want to do considerably better than their World Cup efforts when they lagged behind Slovakia and Slovenia.

In Tomas Rosicky, the Czechs have a top player.  If he can string together a run of games for his club side, Arsenal, he may also prove pivotal in his country’s qualifying campaign.  James McFadden still remains Scotland’s standout player, with the side exhibiting a noticeable lack of creativity when he’s missing. Craig Levein’s tenure as the Scottish boss actually started with a home fixture against the Czech Republic, back in March, with a 1-0 win.

However, it will be the away fixtures that will pose the most problems for Scotland; recent matches in Norway and the Ukraine spring to mind as games where Scotland were outplayed with full strength sides.  Although, one can look to a certain night in Paris for some reaffirmation.

Lithuania can sometimes punch above their weight class but other than featherweights Liechtenstein, they are not likely to bully anyone about.

..

We hope that fills you in on the various groups, where your country fits in and how they may or may not be able to progress.  In conclusion, we’d like to thank Professor Stephen Hawking, Carol Vorderman and Marcus du Sautoy for their help in unraveling the UEFA Group Theory Formula.

Enjoy the action and see you in Kiev!

“Personally, I think internationals are going to be something of the past,” he said. “The pride of it and all that, I just think it’s getting lesser and lesser.

“Players these days don’t see as pride in their country, they see it more as a chore, you know ‘God, I have to go again’. That was the way it always was for me.

“I think you’ll be surprised how many players – young ones at that – who will retire from international football after the World Cup.”

There are rumours coming out of the French camp that Karim Benzema is frustrated with his role in the national side. A goal-scoring substitute against the Faroe Islands, his international manager Raymond Domenech was hugely critical of the forward following September’s draw with Romania. Real Madrid’s £35 million signing is quoted as saying “it doesn’t go well” for him under Domenceh. With 7 goals in 26 caps, he is yet to recreate his explosive form at Lyon on the international stage . At just 21, France could be losing their potential leading light for the next decade.

We have seen plenty of players within the British Isles retiring from their respective countries in this decade. Alan Shearer is probably the most famous example of them all. After 63 caps and 30 goals for England, he gave up England duty aged 29. His body could not survive the rigours of playing for Newcastle and England, and was plagued with knee problems throughout his career. He gave the reason of prolonging his club career, and played for Newcastle until 2006. His childhood dream of becoming Newcastle’s top scorer was realised with 206 goals. That’s all the justification he needs for turning his back on the international game.

Paul Schloes ‘England career also ended at 29, after a Euro 2004 spent playing on the left of midfield. He cited family reasons for his retirement, with a frustration at been made the scapegoat at the peak of the Lampard-Gerrard debate lurking under the surface. Clubmate Ryan Giggs went 9 years without playing a friendly game for Wales, and played just 64 times in a 16-year career with his country. Sir Alex Ferguson, despite being a former Scotland manager, is not a fan of international breaks and is still up to his old tricks. Darren Fletcher and Wayne Rooney are ‘unavailable’ for Scotland and England this week. Keep an eye their availability for Manchester United hosting Bolton on Saturday.

For such a small nation, Wales seem to have more retirees than most. Captain Craig Bellamy mentioned today that he is considering hanging up his Welsh boots, as he could be playing Champions League football next season. At 30, and with his injury record, it’s understandable. But Bellamy always enjoyed playing for his country, unlike Jason Koumas. A player of untapped potential, a fear of flying meant he only amassed 34 caps, and didn’t play an international match outside the United Kingdom for two-and-a-half years between September 2005 and March 2008. Add this to the loss of Paul Parry, Carl Robinson and Carl Fletcher, along with manager John Toshank’s very public falling out with Robbie Savage, the Welsh have had their resources stretched to the limit.

Some players don’t play for their countries due to the manager. Glasgow Rangers pair Kris Boyd and Lee McCullough won’t turn out for Scotland due to a serious personality clash with Coach George Burley. Juan Roman Riquelme’s dispute with Argentina coach Diego Maradona turned into a slagging match, riling fans of Boca Juniors to the extent that Maradona was labelled a ‘traitor’ by the supporters who once idolised him

Whilst all the examples previously have been of players approaching their 30s, this trend of talented young players bemoaning international duty at such a young age is worrying. The Champions League is seen as the be-all and end-all these days, with Liverpool’s Jamie Carragher stating all the best players in the world play in the competition. There are enviably going to be some big names missing from next year’s World Cup in South Africa.

Perhaps these youngsters should look at the examples of Steven Gerrard and Cristanio Ronaldo. 2 of the world game’s biggest names, 2 hugely patriotic men, who see the honour in representing their respective countries. Ronaldo was clearly not fully fit taking the field for Portugal against Hungary, and only lasted 27 minutes. Employers Real Madrid were not best pleased. Gerrard has been troubled by a groin injury for over a year now, with has led him to miss games for club and country, but his autobiography showed his undoubted passion in wearing an England shirt.

Should Ireland qualify for South Africa next summer, you can be 99% sure that Stephen Ireland will not be on the plane over. That in itself is a shame. This would be the perfect stage for him to display his undoubted talents. Greats of the game like Cruyff, Pele and Maradona all made their name on the international stage in major tournaments. Whist most of the power in the 21^st century lies with the clubs, the international game will always have its place. Not only those it brings football fans together, but countries come to a standstill when their national side are involved in a World Cup. Maybe then, Ireland would realise it is not a chore. It is a privilege.