Plate Tectonics & The Premier League

In a world where change occurs so frequently, it’s amazing how people tend to have a such strongly  ingrained sense of permanence.   Take me, for example.  I’m 46 now.  When I was a kid, back when the ’70′s wasn’t a show, none of the things upon which I now rely existed.

This was HD in my day.

There weren’t any personal computers or  cell phones.  There weren’t even calculators.  Pencil and paper served to write mail, do complex math, leave reminders (to affix them to something required scotch tape or thumb tacks; no post-its or pushpins) and, of course to do schoolwork.  If you needed to research something, there were these books called encyclopedias.  I walked back and forth to school.  Yes, in the snow or the rain, too, and some days it did seem uphill in both directions.

Automatic transmissions cost extra in your car, the windows cranked, power steering was a luxury and unleaded gas was just a rip-off to make the oil companies more money. Televisions had antennae and a colour set was as expensive as HD plasma screens are now.  Telephones featured rotary dials and party lines (think of it as involuntary conference calling) were still common.  FM radio was counterculture (AM was the big time) and digital watches and alarm clocks were considered otherworldly technology when they first debuted.  Now, one of my stepdaughter’s schoolmates can’t tell time from a traditional clock.  Blows my mind, that does.

So does the fact, when I wax nostalgic, that I don’t know what I’d do without my laptop, cellphone, cable, internet, ATM card or even how I’d get in touch with the police or an ambulance in a strange town if 911/999/112 hadn’t been conceived of yet..  An infinite number of inventions and innovations have come along in my adult, or young adult life, and yet they seem to me as though they’ve been around forever and are indispensable.

Fans of English football look at the current landscape of the Premier League in the same manner.  A week doesn’t go by without someone bemoaning in print or on video that Manchester United, Arsenal and Chelsea have an unfair advantage and will always be on top unless something is done to level the playing field.  Yet, I’m willing to wager a fiver that journos used to go on about Liverpool, in Bill Shankly’s day, in the same fashion, and about the reigns of Aston Villa and Everton, as well, if you go even further into the past.  Never mind that a couple of years ago, until the follies of Hicks & Gillett, Liverpool were included in the royal class, also known as the ‘Big Four.’  The Anfield faithful aren’t too happy about having lost their seat in that house.

Interesting, isn’t it, how we simultaneously fear and crave after change?

Well, if you’re a Premier League aficionado, you should be quaking in your boots and trembling with joy, because the league is in the midst of what could be a tectonic shift in the balance of power.

httpv://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1bJMxhvVf0o

I’ve just mentioned Liverpool’s recent decline and it’s been discussed in the media ubiquitously.  United is seemingly keeping the wolves away from the door because, instead of a trio of smallish porcine building contractors, they have the astute football mind of Sir Alex Ferguson.  Yet what will happen to the value of the club, when Fergie steps down, as, someday soon, he will?  Chelsea’s Roman Abramovich has begun regulating the cash flow into Stamford Bridge but his squad is aging rapidly and UEFA’s financial accountability regulations, just around the corner, seem to prohibit the Russian from re-opening the floodgates.  Arsenal have maintained fiscal discipline, apparently with the consequence of a 6 year trophy drought.  The angst of not winning, however, has led to two of their biggest shareholders, Uzbeki Alisher Usmanov and American Stan Kroenke, each purchasing enough shares, separately, to threaten an imminent and hostile takeover of the club.

The First National City Bank of Manchester.

It’s well known that nature abhors a vacuum and so, too, does the nature of football.  With the weakest of their number having already been deposed and the dynastic runs of the remaining three quarters of the Big Four seemingly balanced on a knife’s edge, there are a number of clubs circling, with a mind to assuming a place at the top when one of the bluebloods stumbles.

Obviously foremost in that group is Manchester City.  Each time Liverpool’s troubles have been dissected, Man City and their Abu Dhabi funded ambitions have been offered up as the natural ascendant to the Red’s vacated place in the ruling class.  It hasn’t happened, yet, mainly because an East Londoner has proven a little quicker to the mark.  Harry Redknapp’s Tottenham side own a Champions League spot this season, having held off Roberto Mancini’s Citizens at last season’s end.  Nor does Harry mean the CL to just be a passing fancy at White Hart Lane, if the purchase of Rafael van der Vaart is any indication.

Another rule of  nature, though, is survival of the fittest.  The tricky part, the one that leads to surprises, is just how that fitness is measured.  City has no end of cash, which makes them very strong and Redknapp has an eye for offensive talent.  Those qualities have put the Eastlanders and Spurs into the spotlight, in the battle for supremacy in the coming ‘New Order,’ but there are other sides planning coups of their own.

Despite a proven record of success, Houllier will have to win over Villa fans.

Aston Villa and Everton, past rulers of the English top flight, have focused their hopes on strong management.  For Villa, the lack of finances has allegedly cost them their field general, Martin O’Neill,  but they are hoping that Gerard Houllier, the Frenchman who led Liverpool through the last stages of their dynasty, in the early ’90′s, can take them the rest of the way back to glory.  At Goodison Park, patience and fortitude have been the watchwords of the Scot, David Moyes.  Yet, he too, has not been able to put it all together, especially in the early stages of campaigns.

For Liverpool, the unhappiness of their displacement is still fresh and the demand for a quick turnaround is loud.   Roy Hodgson, as he showed at Fulham, is capable of doing much more than expected with far less resources than some but even he cannot conjure something out of nothing.  Owners, Hicks & Gillett, have proven unwilling and unable to invest for the long term and their desire to make a profit from their demolition of a proud franchise may instead see it turned over to the bank for liquidation.  The Kop had best get used to being a struggling club, for the time being.

Each of these clubs has a missing ingredient in the recipe for ultimate success but there is one side, coming up quickly, that seems to have everything required.

Birmingham City, under Alex McLeish, surprised many with their performance last year.  Having just returned from a single season exile to the Championship, the club had gone through several changes and, early in their return, went through one more.  The former Celtic manager, having brought the club immediately back into the top flight, had to be overjoyed when he finally met the new chairman.

The purchase of City took longer than expected, despite the seeming haste of the David’s, Sullivan and Gold, to leave a place where they knew they were emphatically not wanted.  Although, once the transaction was complete, the new owner, Hong Kong investor and casino boss Carson (Ka Sing) Yeung quickly got down to business.

Plotting a dynasty?

The Scottish manager hasn’t had the blank checkbook that Roberto Mancini enjoys, but his eye for quality and value has allowed him to spend the resources he’s been given very well.  His triple dip on the last day of the transfer window, for Alex Hleb, Jean Beausejour and Martin Jiranek capped an interesting summer of shopping for the Blues.  Earlier, he had brought home the vagabond English striker, Matt Derbyshire, from Greece and, prior to the World Cup, had recruited match starved United keeper Ben Foster to replace Joe Hart, when Man City denied to extend his loan or sell him permanently.  Also new, is 6’7″ Serbian striker Nikola Zigic, who, despite the manager’s familiarity with Peter Crouch, was signed without the rumoured ‘no robot dance celebration’ clause attached to his contract.

Added to the UK and Irish base of Kevin Philips, James McFadden, Barry Ferguson, Lee Bowyer, Stephen Carr and Stuart Parnaby, the influx of international talents should give the Birmingham boss a greater diversity of  tactical options and make his squad a less predictable opponent for which to prepare.

It’s early days but the Blues have taken points in all 3 matches, including two hard fought draws away from home.  That type of fight shows another of McLeish’s strong attributes; his players are willing to go out and give their all for him.  When you examine the Scot’s methods and results, as well as his managerial career path, up from Motherwell and Hibernian, then on to Rangers and now birmingham, it puts you in mind of a much older countryman of his, Sir Alex Ferguson.

Remember that when Fergie first came into the United set-up, they were commoners themselves.  It took him a few seasons to build them into the European giants they were once and are again.  So don’t misunderstand me.  I’m not tipping City for immediate glory.  I’m just laying the ground work so that, in three or four seasons, I can say I told you so.

You know you're old if you can remember Alan Shearer with hair.

Wouldn’t it be nice, a generation from now, to say to some glassy eyed youngster, “I remember when Sir Alex first got to Birmingham.  Believe me, they weren’t such an unstoppable force back then!”

The landscape in the Premier League is changing.   Nothing is forever and one season, in the not too distant future, we’ll get a fifth Premier League Champion; one not named United, Arsenal, Chelsea or Blackburn (remember them!).  My money is on Birmingham.

So, to those of you still complaining about the lack of change in the Premier League, I say wake up!  It’s happening right under your nose.