If Liverpool win the Premier League this season, they will deserve it. Simply because they never gave up, and more importantly because they went to Old Trafford, trounced the side that was earmarked as the inevitable winners of all that lay before them just weeks before and in doing so sent Manchester United down a slipperly slope to fragility which they are still struggling to halt. When they have truly sparkled, against Newcastle away and Real Madrid at home for example, they have performed to a standard that Manchester United generally have not, who, rather, have based their league campaign on a succession of solid if unspectacular displays with a moment of quality to seal the points.

In addition, luck prevails on behalf of all teams throughout the season – although most would undoubtedly disagree that their side benefits from it, the FA could pay for 2018 with the money from Neil Warnock’s outbursts alone. Manchester United were fortunate to play Chelsea at home when the club were at their lowest ebb this season, Drogba was woeful that day, Scolari clueless as to what to do about his sinking ship. Compare that performance to what the same group of players produced at Anfield and ponder whether Guus Hiddink’s Chelsea would have collapsed with such little resistance earlier in the season. Chelsea were equally unfortunate to play Newcastle several days after the return of their second messiah, Alan Shearer. It was a game they won, but one certainly made more difficult with Shearer rather than Hughton in the dugout.

Why do I make these apparently unconnected points? Because I would hate to think that the observation I am about to make might either appear to suggest that Liverpool have simply been lucky in their pursuit of the Premier League, or that luck does not even itself out over the course of a season. This is simply an observation of the situation as it stands now – Liverpool are getting a great deal of help from the fixture list. Compare the teams both Liverpool and Manchester United have yet to play or have recently played, Arsenal, Tottenham, Fulham, Middlesbrough. Similar run ins with one crucial difference – Liverpool consistently get to play first. Manchester United are suffering for their relentless pursuit of the clean sweep, this weekend they will play Everton at Wembley while Liverpool have a welcome weekend of relief. When the Premier League picks up again the following week Liverpool will play Arsenal on Tuesday evening, United will have to wait until Wednesday to play Portsmouth.

Manchester United, of course, still have a game in hand which they will have to wait until the very end of the season to play. The effect is that Liverpool are consistantly receiving the psychological boost of going top and seeing it in print in the Sunday newspapers. United, despite holding a points advantage and a game in hand, must constantly feel like they are playing catch up. In fact since their trip to the World Club Cup, they have only caught up with the number of games played by Chelsea and Liverpool once, after their 4-0 victory against Fulham at Old Trafford.

It is a situation comparable to a World Cup penalty shootout – given the choice, a side will always go first. In theory both are faced with the same proposition, five penalties, most scored wins – and over the course of a season the same logic applies to each team’s fixture list. But the edge of having scored and the opposition knowing they must too is of great advantage, and it is a huge benefit for Liverpool to have it right now.

Perhaps it is a turn of fortune they have earnt – Fernando Torres’ presence for the entire season might have seen some of those irritating draws at home reap all three points, but this could make all the difference to where the trophy ends up. It is reminiscent of the 2005-6 season when Jose Mourinho’s Chelsea endeavoured to chase down a rampant Manchester United. That season it was United who consistently played first, forcing Chelsea to make the running and win to keep themselves in contention – something they attempted with great valour, a late Kalou header at Watford sticks in the memory. Eventually they faltered against Arsenal at the Emirates, a brave fight finally lost. That was a different season, though, a similar lead to chase down for Chelsea, but against a United side in exceptional form.

Momentum at this stage of the season is a curious thing, as of now Liverpool have it. Manchester United have their backs to the wall and luck seems to be deserting them, nobody said winning five trophies was going to be easy. Last season Rangers seemed destined to taste glory on every front and were eventually trounced in Manchester by Zenit St. Petersburg and overhauled in the SPL by Celtic. In the ever changing Premier League, nobody knows what will happen next. Managers will be sacked, players will be injured, clubs will find psychological boosts from unexpected sources. For good or for bad Liverpool and Manchester United will just have to endeavour to get on with it and make the most of the luck they receive when it comes. Other factors will come in to play, too. Is Rafael Benitez having an effect in the media? He has chosen to take Sir Alex Ferguson on in the press room, if Liverpool end the season trophyless it is those moments that will be seized on to prove his failings. Liverpool have already surrendered a lead at the top once, could they cope with the pressure of leading the league again? It is impeccably balanced and now now appears to be a question of who will blink first, with such a fine line between the two perhaps playing first could make all the difference.