The Cyclic Nature of Football
Steven Jones looks at the English dominance in the Champions League can only be considered temporary due to the cyclical nature of football…
If I were an Italian football fan, the pessimist in me would be reflecting on another terrible week that Italian clubs have had in the Champions League – the optimist however, would hold feelings of excitement.
In two or three years Italy will once again be represented in the latter part of the Champions League. It’s hard to see right now with English team’s dominance and glimmer of hopes from Spain with Barcelona and Germany’s Bayern Munich but football is cyclical and because of that I would be in anticipation of the next Calcio assault.
Whether there are genuine baron spells or major turning points such as the Heysel disaster or the Calciopoli scandal – the Champions League will continue to produce a variety of winners – exemplified by the fact no team or teams have won it back to back from the same country since Milan in the late 80’s. England, Spain and Italy all contribute 11 Champions League wins between them.
Without getting into the inevitable topic about finances, Italian teams have struggled in the last couple of seasons to decorate their squads in the same manner that English and Spanish teams have. What the Italian teams now possess, is a pragmatic view focusing on youth players and realistic transfer budgets – they also have unrestricted access to South American’s particularly those of Brazilian nationality. Thiago Silva will join up with Milan in the summer, and Diego is heavily tipped to replace Nedved at Juventus – there will no doubt be more by the end of August.
Another major factor is the vast increase in the quality of mid table sides in Italy such as Napoli & Lazio meaning their stars will be there for the taking this summer for the top teams – the Italian league as a whole is strengthing before our very eyes. Marek Hamsik is rumoured be making a move to Internationale, Napoli will do well to hold on to Ezequiel Lavezzi as will Lazio with Mauro Zárate.
Italy’s historically strongest club team, Milan, will be back in the Champions League next season, as will a more streamlined Inter Milan side. Jose Mourinho will surely look to Alex Ferguson’s regime at Manchester United when choosing his squad to avoid having to field players such as Nelson Rivas – also the rumoured transfer of Kun Aguero should be the summer’s biggest talking point.
There’s also a certain Yoann Gourcuff at Bordeaux. Come the end of the season he is due to return to Milan. Add this to Kaka, a sublimely impressive Pato and yet again there’s another Milan team for Europe to fear.
The buck does not stop with Italian clubs though. Germany and Holland are both experienced nations at fielding great Champions League teams with five medals from each country. Bayern Munich are again a force to be reckoned with in Europe and when you consider how tight the German league is this season there are surely a handful of German teams that can punch their weight in the Champions League.
Previous glories of PSV and Ajax may find it more difficult to replicate but one only has to look at Porto of five years ago and realise that anything is possible in football – special teams like the Ajax of 1995 are surely still achievable even if only for a short period.
Barcelona are again this year’s spanner in the works for English teams, but don’t be surprised if you are sitting there in May watching another all-English final – hopefully you’re not reading this in 2010 or 2011 thinking exactly the same thing!
I agree that football is cyclical and in fact think that most mid table Premier League teams would struggle against mid table European opposition. I sometimes wonder whether or not the fact that the big four teams in England are so used to playing possession football in Europe has helped them to move ever farther out of reach for the rest of the league.
Back on topic though, the Italian league has improved since Juventus returned to Serie A though they are still some way behind England and Spain. They do seem to have little attacking pace though, something the Spanish and English teams have in abundance.
Spanish teams seem the most likely and it has to be said Barcelona – by and large – have been frighteningly good this season. Who do you think will win it this year? Which team or teams in Europe do you think have the right platform from which to challenge in the future?
I just realised I hadn’t replied to this one.
I think Barca and Man Utd are favourites, depending on if Barca can keep Messi fit they are in with a great chance.
I think Inter need to take advantage now whilst they’re still the top team in Italy otherwise Moratti may never lift the European Cup. Milan and Juventus will again be the teams to beat from Italy in years to come I think.